Story view estimate

Stories last 24 hours and the externally observed data we can access holds no measured view counts for them. Starlecta therefore shows Story views as a modelled estimate, labelled as an estimate, and keeps it apart from measured Reel and post numbers.

Formula: Estimated views = followers × a view ratio × the number of verified Stories

• The view ratio is the median of the account's own Reel plays divided by followers, when it has at least three Reels with usable counts. That median is pulled into the p10 to p90 band of comparable peers, and the ratio never exceeds 1.
• When the account's own Reel sample is short, the median of peers is used: same category and follower tier when that group has at least 100 accounts, otherwise the follower tier.
• A low and a high scenario use the p10 and p90 ratios of the peer group. This range is a modelled spread, not a confidence interval and not measured past views.

• No public validation of the Story view estimate is published yet. Starlecta has not published a comparison of the estimate with Story view counts that accounts report themselves, and the low and high scenarios are a spread of peer ratios, not a measure of accuracy. Read the estimate as a planning range, not as a verified figure.
• It is a model, not a measurement. No Story view count is read for it. It is not unique reach and not a count of people.
• Stories are in the data only from the day an account entered tracking, so the estimate for a recently added account rests only on the Stories seen since then.
• The estimate needs a follower count and, for the account's own ratio, at least three Reels with usable counts. When they are missing the estimate is left empty with a reason, not shown as zero.

10,000 followers, a view ratio of 0.2 and 5 verified Stories: 10,000 × 0.2 × 5 = 10,000 estimated views. Brand of the Day labels the figure "estimated story views (modelled)".